Quebec Seperation Within Next 5 Years - Reality?

[Moonlight_Graham]

Read a front-page article in the Ottawa Citizen newspaper today about Gagliano testifying before the Gomery Commision. It was about him saying that Quebec'ers have lost all faith & are disgusted by the Liberals (since the Spondership Scandal occused mostly in Quebec) and that in the next Quebec Provincial Election (the Liberals rule the province now w/ Jean Charet) the Bloc Quebecios would get in....and shortly thereafter the Bloc would call referendum for Quebec seperation (which is true) and the majority would very likely vote for seperation this time (also likely).

 

Quebecers hate Libs = Bloc gets in Provincally = referendum = Quebec Seperation. Makes sense?

 

Very interesting. I was also listening to some talk radio today about this article and a lot of people agreed that this is highly plausible (even given the source - Gagliano). I agree, this could be a reality within the near future if things continue as they are.

 

And this would be horrible for Canada beyond the obvious. The Aboriginals own a lot of land in Quebec (like the Cree) and they wouldn't give it up to Quebec without a fight.

 

(shit, gotta end this now. i just saw a freaking mouse (a REAL mouse) in my computer room. Gotta go catch it!!!!)

[Bizud]

The Parti Quebecois, not the Bloc, are the sovereigntist party in Quebec.

 

Complete secession would be worse for Quebec than for Canada, but most sovereigntists don't favour complete succession. There are more people who would simply prefer increased powers for Quebec's provincial government relative to the federal government, and a referendum may simply mean negotiations that would lead to that (though if the rest of Canada refuses to make such a deal, a unilateral declaration of independence would probably be the next step).

 

I guess it's possible. I tend not to spend much time thinking about it.

Edited April 21, 2005 by Bizud

[Moonlight_Graham]

well Quebec seperation would suck for Canada. The instability would make our dollar sink into the abyss for years, until the whole situation was somewhat stable (5-10 years? or more?) & our economy would hit the crappers.

 

Plus don't forget we have tons of federal gov't buildings in Quebec (thank u Chretien). Who gets those? What happens to the St. Lawrence Seaway? Atlantic Canada? What will they call the Montreal Canadiens? (bahaa!)

 

But i agree it would suck even more for Quebec.

[calgarydave]

I doubt that Quebec would ever REALLY seperate. I think its more of a club that they use to get what they want.

 

Realistically though in the long run not having Quebec would be a benifit to our econmy.

 

A lot of companies who have factories and plants in Quebec want to close them due to various reasons, but can't due to the political aspect.

 

I could be wrong on the company, but I belivie GM has a factory just outside Montreal (or Quebec city... I'm dumb okay cant remember) and its their number 1 we want to close plant in the world, and has been like that for 20 years but obviously they havent been able to get over the political fallout of actually closing it. SHould Quebec seperate all these plants will close and move elsewhere (some to Canada or whats left of it lol).

 

Also you wouldn't have a huge sink for federal transfer payments. I belive, but dont have a source to back it up, that Quebec recives the most percapita transfers.

[wonks]

it's in st. therese. that's where they built the camaro and firebird before they were scrapped.

[foxxraven]

Ok new guy here, but being a Quebecois, I wish to dispell myths.

1) Should Quebec separate, those federal buildings would either remain in the hands of the feds, or be bought out by Quebec.

2) There is a very complicated series of events that would follow a succesful referendum, but if you want to understand somewhat of how Quebec intends to become independant, look no further than how Canada became independant of Britain. We didn't get out own citizenship until 1965. So that's roughly how they intend to spearate. Unless something goes wrong.

3) Unless the Albertans intend to pay more in taxes, Quebec separating is disastrous. First of all, you lose two huge ports, (Montreal is the biggest port on the East Coast after only Boston and New York City) a ton of manufacturing ability for Canada, which is mainly a primary resource nation (see West and their reliance on Wheat and Oil for cash) National Defence would suffer, not to mention that Canada would now have to compete against the titanic US for investment rights in Quebec, especially for those important natural resources like Nickel (something China desperately wants).

4) Culturally. How can Canada claim to be the best nation in the world if an entire section wants to leave? The hypocrisy would be intolerable. Finally, health care would go down the tubes. A large proportion of the nation lives in Quebec and you lose those individual and industrial taxpayers and you have problems with your economy.

 

I may explain further, but it gets really technical after a while. If they call an election and the feds fall, Duceppe will jump to the Parti Quebecois, and it might take less than 5 years to separate. But I could be wrong, so don't hold me to that statement.

[Dan #2]

What happens to... ...Atlantic Canada?

Atlantic Canada is a culture of defeat anyway. Let them drink screech.

 

Losing Quebec would suck, but i'm not sure if it's an immediate possibility.

[juanpe]

how many of you would be for the separation?

[Moonlight_Graham]

i'm undecided. Like its been said, its so complicated. It would solve many problems in Canada if Quebec is gone, but many of those problems are just headaches (big headaches). It would be like a messy divorce from a long-time spouse.

 

If Quebec were located geographically where B.C. or Labrador are, then it would be better for Canada, but Quebec being gone is literally like ripping a huge chunk out of the middle of the country.

 

There is also the obvious cultural sadness that would come with Quebec being gone. I wish this wasn't a problem.

 

Juanpe, you say religion is very divisive (which is very true), but language is also.

[calgarydave]

3) Unless the Albertans intend to pay more in taxes, Quebec separating is disastrous. First of all, you lose two huge ports, (Montreal is the biggest port on the East Coast after only Boston and New York City) a ton of manufacturing ability for Canada, which is mainly a primary resource nation (see West and their reliance on Wheat and Oil for cash) National Defence would suffer, not to mention that Canada would now have to compete against the titanic US for investment rights in Quebec, especially for those important natural resources like Nickel (something China desperately wants).

Total BS! I'll tell you why.

 

First of currently Quebec is the oppistate to Alberta, in that while us Albertians pay more to the Feds than we get back in transfer payments, and services in our provinces.

Quebec pays far less.

 

I.E. for the sake of argument Alberta pays 1000$ to the feds in total (remember its just an arguement) and we get back 500$ worth of transfer payments and government services.

 

Quebec on the other hand pays 500$ but gets back 1000$.

 

SO should quebec seperate, they'd be out that $500 and that extra 500$ that comes from AB could go somewhere else.

 

 

Next Port. Granted Montreal has a big port, but that would quickly change. I dont know for sure but 1 of 2 things is current either the ports are publically owned. In that case they'd remain in the hands of Ottawa and not a lot would change, or they are privatly owned.

Well if they're private you'll see a shift away from Montreal to the other ports in the East. Why? Well the costs associated to bring goods into Canada through Quebec would be too great, so shippers will begin to reroute the boats to other ports. Granted this will take a while as the otehr ports have to be expanded, but its sure to happen (minus the trade that goes solely into quebec).

 

Why would National Defense suffer? I dont see it. Okay we'd loose a few bases in Quebec, but theres a lot of spots to build new ones. Of course other than the fact that military bases are owned by ottawa, and are generally beilved to still be part of the owning country. Little chuncks of Canada in Quebec ;) Plus now with almost the same resources we'd have a significantly less area to defend.

 

As far as manufacturing and heavy industry is concerned a large portion of that would move across the border back into Canada, as the plants quite often arent profitable and only kept open due to politcal reasons.

 

As far as mineral resources, less than 12% of the GDP comes from resources. With most of that coming from Ontario, Manitoba, NWT/Nunavut.

 

As far as the specific example Nickel hate to say this but almost all of Canadas nickle production is from Sudbery and surrounding area.

 

 

*edit* typo

Edited April 22, 2005 by calgarydave

[HoboFactory]

I like the idea of an independent Quebec; North America needs another country.

[Spritzup]

I remember hearing talk at the time of the last referendum(sp?) that if Quebec did seperate they would only have rights to the land that they owned when they joined Canada, not the land that was given to them by the Federal Government. Whether or not this is true, I've never really taken the time to explore, but it would make sense.

[Bizud]

If Quebec can separate from Canada, areas of Quebec that want to stay in Canada can separate from Quebec.

[foxxraven]

In reply to Calgary dude. Yep, agree with all you said. You get less in transfer payments. Why? Because we have more federal infrastructure. Stuff the feds would have to buy.

 

Port of Montreal. It is the outlet to the East. No, you wouldn't ship things through the U.S. because then all the little cities in Ontario would suffer, like Thunder Bay. And if you shipped things through lets say Halifax, you'd still have to pass through Quebec. you're only option would be to ship through Vancouver. However, the costs of circumnavigating the globe probably outweights the extra 12 cents you would have paid to go through the St. Lawrence Seaway. Which is another reason why Montreal is important. Canada would be paying for a seaway system to which Montreal is integral.

 

For your information, there is a HUGE, HUGE nickel mine opening in Northern Quebec in the next couple of years that was prospected and financed on the assumption that China would be needing more (which it does). Now in a worldwide economy that is seeing natural resource prices skyrocket, I'd say it be a nice economic boon if Canada could keep that, especially after Paul Martin's little foreign policy document concerning new markets in China. Sure less than 12% comes from the GDP, but the resource market is booming, as you from Alberta should know. It's a market we should be looking into because India and China will want a ton of raw materials over the coming decades as they become consumer markets.

 

Montreal is not a town full of business because of political reasons. The Federal Government does not prop up Montreal. I don't understand where you see all this manufacturing that would be shifted back to Canada, considering it never came from Canada in the first place. If you're talking about American companies that invested in Quebec, it wasn't because the Feds made them do it, it was because of our booming economy in the '60's after the Quiet Revolution. Places the Feds made companies invest are the Maritimes, B.C. and the North.

 

Oh and national defence. Why would it suffer? Because now instead of just Canada's voice at the table with the Americans, you also have the Quebecois. Why else would it suffer? Can you imagine what the bill would be like in order to shift all those bases around? We can't even pay for uniforms, how in blazes is Canada going to pay Quebec to keep Valcartier open on top of the existing operating costs?

Edited April 22, 2005 by foxxraven

[calgarydave]

Okay I'm not super smart and I dont know how do the "quotes" using the html tags so I apologize for that but

 

Foxxraven:

1) Should Quebec separate, those federal buildings would either remain in the hands of the feds, or be bought out by Quebec.

 

Foxxraven:

You get less in transfer payments. Why? Because we have more federal infrastructure. Stuff the feds would have to buy.

 

Okay which is it? these 2 staments are contradictory with one another.

Quebec gets more in Federal transfer payments because they aren't a "have" province whereas "Alberta" is. But also they get more than they normally should, because Ottawa has beeing trying to encourage Quebec to stay in Canada. Now the point I was making is should any "have not" province leave Canada, the all the other "have not" provinces would get more, as the ammount that was given to Quebec (in the example) would be redistrubted among the other provinces.

 

Hate to tell ya this kiddo but Motnreal isnt the only spot along the sea way. Remember ships can go up as far as good ol' Thunder Bay, and since the developments that allow ships to go up as far as montreal and beyond were federal projects they'd be owned by the feds and you can sure as hell bet part of the purchase agreement (if there was any) would secure unlimited access to them.

 

With any new mine, it takes at least 10 years before the mine recovers the inital set up costs. I highly doubt that should Quebec seperate, that this project you mentioned would actually go ahead, companies are not giong to want to invest in a newly formed country, one that will be (at least in comparision) highly politcally unstable.

 

I'll also grant you that in the past Quebec had a good ecomony and attracted the companies and industry that it has, HOWEVER since about the 1970's (read flq crisis) Quebecs economy has gone downhill, and these companies have been unable due to politcal reasons to move thier HQ's or manufacturing to more stable and profitable areas.

 

Last and I belivie if you read what I said before I explained this already. But I'll do it again...

 

-Candian Forces Bases are owned by the Federal government.

 

Foxxraven:

1) Should Quebec separate, those federal buildings would either remain in the hands of the feds, or be bought out by Quebec.

 

calgarydave

[CFB's] are generally beilved to still be part of the owning country. Little chuncks of Canada in Quebec

 

Therefore, the bases would not have to be moved. If Quebec wanted to, they could buy up the bases, but then lol we'd have all the funds needed to reopen or build a new base.

[juanpe]

Juanpe, you say religion is very divisive (which is very true), but language is also.

and I totally agree with you... apart from geographical differences, both religion and language are one of the main divisive reasons

[Moonlight_Graham]

calgarydave is right, in that Alberta would not suffer if Quebec goes. More likely they'd benefit in terms of more funding. The Canadian Government panders to Quebec like its going out of style. Quebec gets tons of money from the feds, meanwhile Western Canada usually gets ripped off as usual since they are close to meanlingless politically.

 

Quebec has been a real drain on the country in many ways. I'm leaning closer to wanting Quebec to separate if they choose. Sure, Canada's economy would be totally fucked for awhile, and it would be sad culturally for Canada, and it would leave an ugly gap in the middle of Canada when you look on a map, and there would be more bickering for a long time until things got straight.......but it can't be worse than the bickering and bullshit thats going on now.

 

I'm tired of Quebec always wanting special treament. I say shutup or get the fuck out.