Conservatives On Brink Of Majority, Polls Say

[Moonlight_Graham]

Saw this in the paper today, but none of you can likely see the entire articel if u don't subscribe: http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...2c-a56d52da0700

 

Article says latest ipsos-reid poll shows seat projections of Conservatives taking a strong minority gov't if an election were held today, and they are close to getting a majority win.

 

The greater Toronto area is still mostly Liberal, but Conservatives have made strong in-roads there since the shooting of the innocent girl during the holiday because most believe Conservatives would do a better job fixing crime than the Liberals.

 

The rest of Ontario is showing a very strong Conservative lead over Liberals and NDP.

 

Suprisingly, the Conservatives have actually passed the Liberals in support in Quebec according the poll (both around 20% support i believe), with Bloc around 50%.

 

The Bloc is actually closing in on the Liberals as the official opposition.

 

Of course these are just polls and about 15% of people are still undecided.

[borntohula]

the polls are stupid and vary as much as the sources who provide them.

[garsk]

i would like a conservative minority with a strong NDP party in power, but i will take the majority too.

[ecnarf]

I could handle a conservative minority. But a majority? Holy fucking shit.

 

Yet more proof we need to reform the goddamned electoral system so that the big 2 parties (and, to a considerable extend, the Bloc) can't take advantage of the first past ths post system, while the political minorities in this country have zero representation.

 

FYI: The only conservative who really stands a chance in Toronto is Peter Kent. And that's probably because he's more socially liberal than a lot of Toronto Liberal MP's (most of the MP's from my area voted against gay marriage, for example, in one of the most liberal-minded areas of the country).

[Ravenous Yam]

I would definitely prefer a Tory minority to a Tory majority, but i would still prefer a Tory majority to a Liberal... well, anything really.

 

All politics and partisanship aside, it is good for the system to switch it up every once in a while... it keeps the parties and the politicians on their toes and in check. When a party get elected consistently regardless of what or how much they screw up they get lazy, inefficient and corrupt.

[ecnarf]

All politics and partisanship aside, it is good for the system to switch it up every once in a while... it keeps the parties and the politicians on their toes and in check. When a party get elected consistently regardless of what or how much they screw up they get lazy, inefficient and corrupt.

I wouldn't disagree with you on that at all. It's never a good thing for a party to be in power for so long that it has all the "balances of power" (i.e. the supreme court, senate, etc) in their favour. I think another full term for the Liberals would have brought us dangerously close. The Senate is stacked in the Liberal's favour (although it is basically a castrated shell of a legislated body), but the Supreme Court is (to my knowledge) still populated by Mulroney picks. Which is a bit suprising considering their ruling on same sex marriage.

[no yu begin wher i end]

All politics and partisanship aside, it is good for the system to switch it up every once in a while... it keeps the parties and the politicians  on their toes and in check. When a party get elected consistently regardless of what or how much they screw up they get lazy, inefficient and corrupt.

I wouldn't disagree with you on that at all. It's never a good thing for a party to be in power for so long that it has all the "balances of power" (i.e. the supreme court, senate, etc) in their favour. I think another full term for the Liberals would have brought us dangerously close. The Senate is stacked in the Liberal's favour (although it is basically a castrated shell of a legislated body), but the Supreme Court is (to my knowledge) still populated by Mulroney picks. Which is a bit suprising considering their ruling on same sex marriage.

I thought I read somewhere that the dissenters were the Mulroney picks and those who voted in favour were picked by Liberals. I could be wrong on this, though.

[Cherry Poppin' Daddy]

So, if the Tories come two or three seats short of a majority, who thinks a few Liberals will cross the floor?

[ecnarf]

All politics and partisanship aside, it is good for the system to switch it up every once in a while... it keeps the parties and the politicians

[Moonlight_Graham]

Encarf, I thought i heard/read in the news that most of the judges (i assume they mean Supreme Court) were mostly Liberal, as were the Senate. How can the Liberals be in power for 12 years and it still be mostly Mulroney judges?

 

Cherry Poppin' Daddy, i'm not sure who or if any Liberals would cross the the floor, but i'd bet Belinda Stronach would be shitting herself. Especially if she doesn't get re-elected this Monday.

[Dan #2]

i'd bet Belinda Stronach would be shitting herself. Especially if she doesn't get re-elected this Monday.

Haha, as much as i respect her, that would be hilarious.

[Scot]

i would like a conservative minority with a strong NDP party in power, but i will take the majority too.

as would i.

[Shortcut To Moncton]

It's not going to be a majority. The Conservatives really aren't gaining THAT much in Ontario. They'll win all 28 seats in Albeta this time around and a large majority in the rest of the Prairies. BC still leans Liberal slightly and the Maritimes are stauntly Liberal alongside the Territories. The real question is how will the Conservatives hold IN Quebec? It will more than likely be a Conservative minority but don't be surprised to see a Liberal minority.

 

*hold in Quebec momentum-wise, of course

I mean they aren't as bad as the NDPs in Quebec.

Edited January 18, 2006 by Shortcut To Moncton

[josiegross]

seems like this is the right spot.

 

a couple of nights ago i had a dream that i was organizing my closet. then belinda stronach came in, and she was the leader of the NDP. then i turn around and paul martin and stephen harper are sitting on the closet floor with belinda and i and we all talked politics for a while.

 

 

i woke up scared. probably of stephen harper.

 

 

 

 

what does it all mean?

[ecnarf]

seems like this is the right spot.

 

a couple of nights ago i had a dream that i was organizing my closet. then belinda stronach came in, and she was the leader of the NDP. then i turn around and paul martin and stephen harper are sitting on the closet floor with belinda and i and we all talked politics for a while.

 

 

i woke up scared. probably of stephen harper.

 

 

 

 

what does it all mean?

I think it means you need to find better things to dream about.

 

P.S. Moonlight - don't ask me how the liberals could be in power for 12 years and still have a considerable amount of Mulroney appointees on the Supreme Court bench, but that's what I remember reading. And besides that, when was the last time you remember hearing about a new supreme court justice being installed? It's hardly publicized.

[no yu begin wher i end]

http://www.scc-csc.gc.ca/aboutcourt/judges/curjudges_e.asp

 

Only 2 judges have been appointed by the PC's. The last few were appointed in the summer of 2004, it seems.

[Ravenous itchy]

hooray for derek for ending the debate

[ecnarf]

What? The best you can do to counter me is use facts?

 

I want more hearsay on the matter.

[no yu begin wher i end]

Michel Bastarache eats children.

 

[ecnarf]

Santa Claus is real?

[no yu begin wher i end]

With 8 brothers and sisters. Santa Sr. was a busy elf.

 

[ecnarf]

What's with the goddamned tree in the middle?

[Russell]

So, if the Tories come two or three seats short of a majority, who thinks a few Liberals will cross the floor?

The interesting and key question is: Would the Tories allow Liberals to cross the floor considering their recent condemnation of the Stronach incident and their plans to reform the process to make doing that illegal.

 

I would say no. They have to continue pretending to have ideals for at least a term or they'll go the way of the PC's fast.

[Matt]

This is not really a reason to go to proportional representation at all EcNarf, as much as I do not want to see the Conservatives in power, it's still not a reason to change systems, because our current one works pretty well in any event.

[Russell]

"as much as I do not want to see the Conservatives in power, it's still not a reason to change systems"

 

That's the thing. People like myself have supported proportional representation for years, long before any Conservative threat arose. Perhaps more are drawn to the cause now, but that doesn't change the fact that it has been an issue for a long time now.

 

 

"because our current one works pretty well in any event."

 

I disagree. Our current system doesn't work well at all. Why should a party with around 38-40% of the votes potentially get over 50% of the seats (as the Liberals have many times in recent years) while a party with 4-6% (Greens) gets zero seats. With 4% of the popular vote the Greens should get 4% of the seats, which is 12 of them. The NDP with 14-18% of popular support is generally lucky to get 12 for itself. That is why our system does not work - because it does not represent the views of the minority unless enough of them are concentrated in a small area (in a single riding).